Federal Election 2010

Hung Parliament on 52-48 Scenario

August 17

Some say that with the state of the national polls

eg Newspoll ALP 52-48 it is impossible for

the ALP to not win majority government.

However, it is perfectly possible for the ALP

to win only 75 seats with 52% of the vote.

The following

scenario sets out how this might happen and

is roughly consistent with the latest national polls,

state-wide polls. individual seat polls and

individual seat betting markets.

State-by-state.

NSW (average 1.5% swing to Liberals, ALP end up on 51.9%)

Loss of Macquarie, Robertson, Gilmore, Macarthur

Bigger swing in Lindsay (-7%) loss

Lesser swings in Bennelong (-0.6%) hold

Qld (average 3.7% swing to LNP, ALP end up on 46.9%)

Loss of Flynn, Dickson, Dawson, Herbert

Bigger swing in Leichhardt (-5%) loss

Lesser swing in Forde (-2.5%) hold

Lesser swing in Longman (+2%) hold

Vic (average 3.2% swing to ALP, ALP end up on 57.2%)

Gain of McEwen

Lesser swing in La Trobe (1% to Libs) Lib hold

Greens win Mebourne

WA (average 0.3% swing to ALP, ALP end up on 47.0%)

Lesser swing in Swan (4% to Libs) Lib gain

Lesser swing in Hasluck (1% to Libs) Lib gain

SA (average +0.1% swing to ALP, ALP on 52.3%)

no change

Tas (av +0.6% swing to ALP)

no change

ACT (av 0% swing to ALP)

no change

NT (av -0.3% swing to Libs, ALP on 55.1%)

ALP lose Solomon

Overall TPP is 52.0%

(0.7% swing to Coalition)

Overall seat result:

ALP 75, Lib 71, Ind 3, GRN 1

Hung Parliament

## Tuesday, August 17, 2010

## Monday, August 16, 2010

Likely state of parties after the election according to the individual

seat odds of Sportingbet as of this morning (aug 17).

Overall situation: around ALP 75, LNP 71 , Ind 3, Green 1 => Hung Parliament

Note that the odds have changed a little over the last few days.

There are now less seats which are close to 50-50 probability.

There has also been a bit of a move by a few NSW seats to the

Coalition.

The change to a hung parliament today is a move

in the opposite direction to the moves on

the betting market for the overall government.

Details (according to current odds):

1)

ALP to lose Melbourne to the Greens

(Prob Green win =55%, Prob ALP =34%)

2)

ALP have 63 safe seats including Eden-Monaro and Longman.

3)

ALP look very likely to retain a further 7 of the following 9

(in which they have good odds of retaining):

Greenway (which was Lib before redistribution), Page, Dobell,

Bonner, Petrie, McEwen(a gain), Bass, Deakin, Brisbane,

But they may lose 2.

4)

ALP should be able to win 2 of the following 3 seats as they are just ahead:

Corangamite, Forde, Bennelong

But they may not get 1 of these.

5)

ALP should be able to win at least 2 of the following 5 seats

where they are just behind, but they will most likely lose

the other 3:

Hasluck(ALP), Solomon(ALP), Lindsay(ALP),

Herbert(Lib/notional ALP), La Trobe (Lib).

6)

ALP should be able to win 1 of the following 5 seats where they are behind

but have the cumulative probability of one win:

Hughes(Lib), Macarthur(Lib, notional ALP), Canning(Lib), Swan(Lib, notional ALP), Dawson(ALP)

7)

There are 6 seats which were in doubt but now seem likely

to be won by the Liberals. Likely 0 to ALP:

Macquarie(Lib), Gilmore(Lib, notional ALP), Boothby(Lib),

Dickson(Lib, notional ALP), Ryan(Lib), Flynn(Lib)

7)

There are 55 safe L/NP seats.

8)

There are 3 safe independents.

9)

Note that there are 75 seats which the odds say that the

ALP are more likely to win than not win, but because there

are more seats just on the ALP side than just on the

Coalition side, the expected number of wins is

a bit less 74.7.

Total 150 seats. Here is a table (click for a larger version).

This also includes estimates of swings to the ALP

based on the bookies odds.

## Saturday, August 14, 2010

Federal Election 2010: Poll of Polls 15th August

We've had a few polls published this weekend.

1)

There are also the latest individual seat betting odds.

http://dr--good.blogspot.com/2010/08/federal-election-2010-analysis-of_14.html

2)

There is a Neilsen 53-47

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/08/13/nielsen-53-47-to-labor/

showing a 0.3% swing to ALP if taken on a uniform national

basis.

3)

There is a Morgan phone poll 51-49 with state by state breakdowns

http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4559/

It suggests swings of

-6.3, +4.2, -3.9, +0.8, -0.4, -3.7 across NSW, Vic, Qld, WA, SA

and Tas respectively. I also include a recent individual seat poll

by Morgan which gives Solomon to the CLP.

4)

There is a newspoll marginals poll

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/08/14/newspoll-marginals-poll-nsw-queensland-victoria/

It suggests swings of

-1.3, +6.2, -3.4 across NSW, Vic, Qld, respectively

5)

There is the dodgy monster Galaxy

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/08/15/galaxy-marginals-polls-and-the-rest/

which is pointing towards an ALP 51-49 TPP but

some claim also suggests swings of

-2.4, +1.6, -5.4, -2.1, 0 across NSW, Vic, Qld, WA and SA respectively.

I think that they have not chosen sensible electorates

to get a picture of the statewide swings but anyway ...

Let's compare their predictions.

Here is a table of electorates with the respective

predictions and a total at the end of how many

of our 5 recent oracles, are predicting an ALP

win. Click for a bigger version. This only includes

marginals.

There are 57 safe ALP seats not listed so

you can use the number in the first

column to total up the overall ALP

wins. ( I don't include Melbourne)

Looks like about 79 to the ALP plus or

minus a few.

We've had a few polls published this weekend.

1)

There are also the latest individual seat betting odds.

http://dr--good.blogspot.com/2010/08/federal-election-2010-analysis-of_14.html

2)

There is a Neilsen 53-47

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/08/13/nielsen-53-47-to-labor/

showing a 0.3% swing to ALP if taken on a uniform national

basis.

3)

There is a Morgan phone poll 51-49 with state by state breakdowns

http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4559/

It suggests swings of

-6.3, +4.2, -3.9, +0.8, -0.4, -3.7 across NSW, Vic, Qld, WA, SA

and Tas respectively. I also include a recent individual seat poll

by Morgan which gives Solomon to the CLP.

4)

There is a newspoll marginals poll

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/08/14/newspoll-marginals-poll-nsw-queensland-victoria/

It suggests swings of

-1.3, +6.2, -3.4 across NSW, Vic, Qld, respectively

5)

There is the dodgy monster Galaxy

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/08/15/galaxy-marginals-polls-and-the-rest/

which is pointing towards an ALP 51-49 TPP but

some claim also suggests swings of

-2.4, +1.6, -5.4, -2.1, 0 across NSW, Vic, Qld, WA and SA respectively.

I think that they have not chosen sensible electorates

to get a picture of the statewide swings but anyway ...

Let's compare their predictions.

Here is a table of electorates with the respective

predictions and a total at the end of how many

of our 5 recent oracles, are predicting an ALP

win. Click for a bigger version. This only includes

marginals.

There are 57 safe ALP seats not listed so

you can use the number in the first

column to total up the overall ALP

wins. ( I don't include Melbourne)

Looks like about 79 to the ALP plus or

minus a few.

Federal Election 2010: Analysis of Individual Seat Betting Aug 15th

Likely state of parties after the election according to the individual

seat odds of Sportingbet as of this morning (aug 15).

Overall situation: around ALP 76, LNP 70 , Ind 3, Green 1 => ALP majority government

Details (according to current odds):

1)

ALP to lose Melbourne to the Greens

(Prob Green win =55%, Prob ALP =34%)

2)

ALP have 63 safe seats including Eden-Monaro and Longman.

3)

ALP look very likely to retain a further 7 of the following 10

(in which they have good odds of retaining):

Greenway (which was Lib before redistribution), Page, Dobell,

Bonner, Petrie, McEwen(a gain), Deakin, Brisbane, Bennelong, Lindsay

But they may lose 3.

4)

ALP should be able to win 3 of the following 4 seats as they are just ahead:

Forde, Bass, Corangamite, Hasluck

But they may not get 1 of these.

5)

ALP should be able to win at least 2 of the following 6 seats

where they are just behind, but they will most likely lose

the other 4:

Solomon(ALP), Hughes(Lib), Herbert(Lib), Macarthur(Lib),

Swan(Lib), Macquarie(ALP)

6)

ALP may win 1 of the following 9 seats where they are behind

but have a significant probability of a win (i.e. it adds up over the 9

seats):

La Trobe, Canning, Dawson(ALP), Bowman, Leichhardt, Gilmore,

Boothby, Dickson, Ryan

7)

There are 54 safe L/NP seats.

8)

There are 3 safe independents.

9)

Note that there are 77 seats which the odds say that the

ALP are more likely to win than not win, but because there

are more seats just on the ALP side than just on the

Coalition side, the expected number of wins is only 76.

Total 150 seats. Here is a table (click for a larger version).

This also includes estimates of swings to the ALP

based on the bookies odds.

Likely state of parties after the election according to the individual

seat odds of Sportingbet as of this morning (aug 15).

Overall situation: around ALP 76, LNP 70 , Ind 3, Green 1 => ALP majority government

Details (according to current odds):

1)

ALP to lose Melbourne to the Greens

(Prob Green win =55%, Prob ALP =34%)

2)

ALP have 63 safe seats including Eden-Monaro and Longman.

3)

ALP look very likely to retain a further 7 of the following 10

(in which they have good odds of retaining):

Greenway (which was Lib before redistribution), Page, Dobell,

Bonner, Petrie, McEwen(a gain), Deakin, Brisbane, Bennelong, Lindsay

But they may lose 3.

4)

ALP should be able to win 3 of the following 4 seats as they are just ahead:

Forde, Bass, Corangamite, Hasluck

But they may not get 1 of these.

5)

ALP should be able to win at least 2 of the following 6 seats

where they are just behind, but they will most likely lose

the other 4:

Solomon(ALP), Hughes(Lib), Herbert(Lib), Macarthur(Lib),

Swan(Lib), Macquarie(ALP)

6)

ALP may win 1 of the following 9 seats where they are behind

but have a significant probability of a win (i.e. it adds up over the 9

seats):

La Trobe, Canning, Dawson(ALP), Bowman, Leichhardt, Gilmore,

Boothby, Dickson, Ryan

7)

There are 54 safe L/NP seats.

8)

There are 3 safe independents.

9)

Note that there are 77 seats which the odds say that the

ALP are more likely to win than not win, but because there

are more seats just on the ALP side than just on the

Coalition side, the expected number of wins is only 76.

Total 150 seats. Here is a table (click for a larger version).

This also includes estimates of swings to the ALP

based on the bookies odds.

## Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Likely state of parties after the election according to the individual

seat odds of Sportingbet as of today (aug 11).

Overall situation: around ALP 76, LNP 70 , Ind 3, Green 1 => ALP majority government

Details (according to current odds):

1)

ALP to lose Melbourne to the Greens

(Prob Green win =55%, Prob ALP =34%)

2)

ALP have 63 safe seats including Greenway (which was Lib before redistribution)

and Eden-Monaro.

3)

ALP look very likely to retain a further 7 of the following 9

(in which they have good odds of retaining):

Booner, Page, Longman, Petrie, Bennelong, Deakin, Dobell, Brisbane, McEwen(a gain)

But they may lose 2.

4)

ALP should be able to win 3 of the following 5 seats as they are just ahead:

Bass, Corangamite, Forde, Lindsay, Hasluck

But they may not get 2 of these.

5)

ALP should be able to win at least 2 of the following 8 seats

where they are just behind, but they will most likely lose

the other 6:

Macarthur(Lib), Solomon(ALP), Hughes(Lib), Herbert(Lib), Dickson(Lib), Flynn(ALP),

Swan(Lib), Macquarie(ALP)

6)

ALP may win 1 of the following 8 seats where they are behind

but have a significant probability of a win (i.e. it adds up over the 8

seats):

Leichhardt(ALP), Canning, La Trobe, Robertson (ALP),

Dawson(ALP), Bowman, Boothby, Gilmore

7)

There are 53 safe L/NP seats.

8)

There are 3 safe independents.

9)

Note that there are 77 seats which the odds say that the

ALP are more likely to win than not win, but because there

are more seats just on the ALP side than just on the

Coalition side, the expected number of wins is only 76.

Total 150 seats. Here is a table (click for a larger version).

We can also roughly estimate the expected swings by using the

seat odds and current margin. See the last column.

## Monday, August 9, 2010

How good are the Individual Seat Odds from the Bookies at predicting the winner of the individual seat?

Below are some results from the 2007 election. (Click for a larger image)

These show some of the seats with the winner, two-party preferred vote

after the election and before and the swing away from ALP. They

show the Sportingbet probability of ALP winning the seat as offered on

Nov 23rd, election eve. Thanks Simon Jackman for keeping that

data.

We also see the winner of the seat according to three different prediction

methods.

First is by using the uniform national swing reported in the Newspoll

of Nov 23.

Next is the winner according to Sportingbet. (Sportingbet didn't

give odds for Hinkler and Kennedy like many seats that

were assumed to be very safe. So we just assume that

Sportingbet was assuming that the current holder would

win.)

Last is the winner according to state by state uniform swings

as predicted by Newspoll on Nov 23rd.

There are 26 seats listed. All three methods agreed in their predictions

on all the other 124 seats and they were all correct

in those predictions. These are the seats where at least one method

got the winner wrong.

So what was the best way to predict the winner of a seat?

Here are the results. Recall that the ALP won 83 of the

150 seats. (They won 110 of the seats not listed here).

Method 1: (use the latest Newspoll and assume a uniform

national swing)

You get 134 predictions correct and you think the ALP will

win 75 seats.

Method 2: (use sportingbet odds for each set)

You get 138 predictions correct and you think the ALP will

win 81 seats.

Method 3: (Use the latest Newspoll state by state swings,

with the national swing for NT, ACT and Tas)

You get 132 predictions correct and you think that the ALP

will win 83 seats.

So, the most accurate predictor of individual seat winners

was to use the bookies' odds.

You can do some more work and find out the expected

number of seats won by each party but we'll come

back to that later.

Below are some results from the 2007 election. (Click for a larger image)

These show some of the seats with the winner, two-party preferred vote

after the election and before and the swing away from ALP. They

show the Sportingbet probability of ALP winning the seat as offered on

Nov 23rd, election eve. Thanks Simon Jackman for keeping that

data.

We also see the winner of the seat according to three different prediction

methods.

First is by using the uniform national swing reported in the Newspoll

of Nov 23.

Next is the winner according to Sportingbet. (Sportingbet didn't

give odds for Hinkler and Kennedy like many seats that

were assumed to be very safe. So we just assume that

Sportingbet was assuming that the current holder would

win.)

Last is the winner according to state by state uniform swings

as predicted by Newspoll on Nov 23rd.

There are 26 seats listed. All three methods agreed in their predictions

on all the other 124 seats and they were all correct

in those predictions. These are the seats where at least one method

got the winner wrong.

So what was the best way to predict the winner of a seat?

Here are the results. Recall that the ALP won 83 of the

150 seats. (They won 110 of the seats not listed here).

Method 1: (use the latest Newspoll and assume a uniform

national swing)

You get 134 predictions correct and you think the ALP will

win 75 seats.

Method 2: (use sportingbet odds for each set)

You get 138 predictions correct and you think the ALP will

win 81 seats.

Method 3: (Use the latest Newspoll state by state swings,

with the national swing for NT, ACT and Tas)

You get 132 predictions correct and you think that the ALP

will win 83 seats.

So, the most accurate predictor of individual seat winners

was to use the bookies' odds.

You can do some more work and find out the expected

number of seats won by each party but we'll come

back to that later.

Federal Election 2010:

Analysis of Individual Seat Betting Aug 9th

Expected Swings in the most marginal seats.

The odds of winning individual seats tell us something about the swings expected in those seats. Eg, 50-50 odds tell us that the bookies and their punters expect the final result in that seat to be close to even. More on this in a future post.

Here are the swings (to the ALP) expected according to today's sportingbet odds.

(click on the table to see a bigger image)

Analysis of Individual Seat Betting Aug 9th

Expected Swings in the most marginal seats.

The odds of winning individual seats tell us something about the swings expected in those seats. Eg, 50-50 odds tell us that the bookies and their punters expect the final result in that seat to be close to even. More on this in a future post.

Here are the swings (to the ALP) expected according to today's sportingbet odds.

(click on the table to see a bigger image)

## Saturday, August 7, 2010

Likely state of parties after the election according to the individual

seat odds of Sportingbet as of today.

Overall situation: around ALP 77, LNP 69 , Ind 3, Green 1 => ALP majority government

Details (according to current odds):

1)

ALP to lose Melbourne to the Greens

(Prob Green win =50.4%, Prob ALP =36.7%)

2)

ALP have 63 safe seats including Greenway (which was Lib before redistribution)

and Eden-Monaro.

3)

ALP look very likely to retain a further 7 of the following 9

(in which they have good odds of retaining):

Lindsay, Page, Bonner, Longman, Petrie, Bennelong, Dobell, Deakin, Brisbane

But they may lose 2.

4)

ALP should be able to win 4 of the following 6 seats as they are just ahead:

Forde, Bass, McEwen(a gain), Hasluck, Hughes(a gain), Corangamite

But they may not get 2 of these.

5)

ALP should be able to win at least one of the following 4 seats

where they are just behind, but they will most likely lose

the other 3:

Solomon(ALP), Macarthur(Lib), Herbert(Lib), Dickson(Lib)

6)

ALP may win 2 of the following 11 seats where they are behind

but have a significant probability of a win (i.e. it adds up over the 11

seats):

Bowman, Flynn(ALP), Swan, Ryan, Macquarie(ALP), Leichhardt(ALP), Paterson,

La Trobe, Canning, Robertson(ALP), Dawson(ALP)

7)

There are 53 safe L/NP seats.

8)

There are 3 safe independents.

Total 150 seats.

## Monday, August 2, 2010

Likely state of parties after the election according to the individual

seat odds of Sportingbet as of today.

Overall situation: around ALP 77, LNP 69 , Ind 3, Green 1 => ALP majority government

Details (according to current odds):

ALP to lose Melbourne to the Greens

ALP have 64 safe seats including Greenway (which was Lib befre redistribution).

ALP look very likely to retain a further 7:

Bonner, Page, Longman, Dobell, Bennelong, Deakin and Brisbane

ALP should be able to hold 3 of the following 4 seats as they are ahead:

Petrie, Forde, Bass, Hasluck

ALP should be able to hold at least one of the following 3 ALP held seats

where they are even, close or just behind, but they will most likely lose

the other 2:

Corangamite, Solomon, Leichhardt,

Other likely ALP losses are:

Macquarie, Flynn, Dawson, Robertson

ALP likely to gain about 2 of the following seats:

McEwen, Hughes, Herbert, Macarthur

ALP probably won't gain any of the following seats

although they are close:

Dickson, Bowman, Swan

There are 55 safe L/NP seats.

There are 3 safe independents.

Total 150 seats.

Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)