Anti Carbon Tax Rally in full swing 23rd March 2011

What if we had Proportional Representation on August 21st?

There are many forms of PR: quotas, state by state,
allowing preferences etc.

Let us suppose that we just a simple national version for the 150
member House of Reps based on 1st preference votes only.

The quota to get any representation could be just the total
number of formal votes divided by 150 seats =
82,683 formal first preference votes.
The CDP makes it over the line, One Nation and
the Country Liberals do not make it.

Say we just ignore the votes that were wasted on the small
parties that did not make this quota. Thus 11,903,018
votes are not wasted and 499,365 votes are wasted.

Now let us divide up the 150 seats amongst the parties
that made it over the quota according to what
proportion of the 11,903,018 votes they got.

The seats in the new parliament [vs current] would be:

ALP 59 seats [actually now 72]
Greens 18 seats [1 seat]
Liberal 48 seats [44]
LNP(Qld) 14 seats [21]
Nationals(all states) 6 seats [7]
Family First 4 seats [0]
CDP 1 seat [0]

So we would also probably have an ALP-Green Coalition
government led by PM Gillard, but it would be
Greener, less Indy-ish and hold a slightly
more substantial majority.

The Two-Party Preferred Vote in O'Connor

The counting has been finished and the AEC reports that the two-party preferred (TPP) result in the seat of O'Connor is

Australian Labor Party

22,029 votes

27.00 %

Liberal/National Coalition

59,555 votes

73.00%

The margin is 37,526 votes.

However, this is not quite correct as it is presented.

The AEC actually distributed all the 81,584 formal votes in O'Connor into two piles: those that preferred Ian Bishop(ALP) over Tony Crook(Nat) and those that preferred Crook over Bishop.

The problem with this is that Tony Crook, along with other WA National Party candidates campaigned on a platform which included the intention of not joining any Liberal National Coalition. Mr Crook reaffirmed that after the election. Mr Crook has not joined any such Coalition since being elected (and it it is not clear there is any formal Coalition agreement now
anyway).

There was actually a sitting Coalition member for this seat, Wilson Tuckey, who was running for re-election and so Mr Crook was clearly not running as Coalition candidate.

It would thus seem more correct for the AEC to have distributed the votes in O'Connor on a TPP basis as Bishop versus Tuckey. This is what happens in other seats where there are Independents or Minor Party candidates in the final two positions.

What difference would that have made to the final figures. We can not tell exactly but below I attempt and estimate.

There are 9 candidates with first prefs as follows:
HUNTLEY, Andy: The Greens: 7232
ROBINSON, Jean: Citizens Electoral Council: 375
TUCKEY, Wilson: Liberal: 31294
SCALLAN, Pat: Family First: 1164
YOUNG, Jacky: Christian Democratic Party: 2221
CROOK, Tony: The Nationals: 23538
STOKES, Geoffrey: Independent: 1298
BISHOP, Ian: Australian Labor Party: 13962
SMITHSON, Neil Ramsay: Independent: 500

The TPP candidates are as follows:
BISHOP, Ian
CROOK, Tony

We can estimate how many votes get distributed to the two TPP candidates.
Best match of TPP booth results is with following preference flows:
From HUNTLEY, Andy to BISHOP, Ian: 79.74% which amounts to 5767 votes.
From ROBINSON, Jean to BISHOP, Ian: 52.88% which amounts to 198 votes.
From TUCKEY, Wilson to BISHOP, Ian: 1.81% which amounts to 566 votes.
From SCALLAN, Pat to BISHOP, Ian: 41.14% which amounts to 479 votes.
From YOUNG, Jacky to BISHOP, Ian: 5.06% which amounts to 112 votes.
From CROOK, Tony to BISHOP, Ian: 0% which amounts to 0 votes.
From STOKES, Geoffrey to BISHOP, Ian: 36.93% which amounts to 479 votes.
From BISHOP, Ian to BISHOP, Ian: 100% which amounts to 13962 votes.
From SMITHSON, Neil Ramsay to BISHOP, Ian: 93.11% which amounts to 466 votes.

We also have a two-candidate count in O'Connor which was distributed on a Tuckey versus Crook basis. The result was

TUCKEY, Wilson

Liberal

37,891

46.44 %

CROOK, Tony

The Nationals

43,693

53.56 %

The estimated preference flows are:
Best match of TCP booth results is with following preference flows:
From HUNTLEY, Andy to CROOK, Tony: 70.17%
From ROBINSON, Jean to CROOK, Tony: 0.58%
From TUCKEY, Wilson to CROOK, Tony: 0%
From SCALLAN, Pat to CROOK, Tony: 29.43%
From YOUNG, Jacky to CROOK, Tony: 26.97%
From CROOK, Tony to CROOK, Tony: 100%
From STOKES, Geoffrey to CROOK, Tony: 10.68%
From BISHOP, Ian to CROOK, Tony: 100%
From SMITHSON, Neil Ramsay to CROOK, Tony: 7%

So my estimates of the preference distribution between Tuckey and Bishop would be:

From HUNTLEY, Andy to BISHOP, Ian: 79.74% which amounts to 5767 votes.
From ROBINSON, Jean to BISHOP, Ian: 52.88% which amounts to 198 votes.
From TUCKEY, Wilson to BISHOP, Ian: 0% which amounts to 0 votes.
From SCALLAN, Pat to BISHOP, Ian: 41.14% which amounts to 479 votes.
From YOUNG, Jacky to BISHOP, Ian: 5.06% which amounts to 112 votes.
From CROOK, Tony to BISHOP, Ian: 20% which amounts to 4708 votes.
From STOKES, Geoffrey to BISHOP, Ian: 36.93% which amounts to 479 votes.
From BISHOP, Ian to BISHOP, Ian: 100% which amounts to 13962 votes.
From SMITHSON, Neil Ramsay to BISHOP, Ian: 93.11% which amounts to 466 votes.

The main figure here is the 20% flow from Crook to Bishop (over Tuckey) in keeping with the sort of flow measured in O'Connor in 2007.

The end result is:
Bishop 26,171 or 32.08%
Tuckey 55,413 or 67.92%

The margin is 29,242 votes.

That is better margin for the ALP and would have given them an extra 8,284 votes in their National TPP win.

The final National Tally would have then been
ALP 50.19% versus LNP 49.81%

Labor Wins the Two-Party Preferred Vote

ALP 50.12% to LNP 49.88%

see the AEC site now that the counting is over
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-15508-NAT.htm

See the short ABC item
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/17/3015006.htm

Compare with their earlier erroneous headlines
http://rage.net.au/news/video/2010/08/30/2997877.htm

Why is the latter bigger?

Current First-Preference Vote Count HOR (almost finished)

When Julia Gillard went to the Governor General this week she
took a list of names of MHRs who had promised to support her in parliament. Together they represented a collection of parties and independents which attracted a certain number of first-preference votes across the country. How many people voted with their first preference for one of those parties or independents, those that support the government?

Government supporters: ALP+Green+Wilkie+Oakeshott+Windsor
6,280,629 first preference votes (50.6% of all formal votes)

Supporters of Abbott: Lib+LNP+Nat+CLP+Katter
5,446,806 first preference votes (43.9% of all formal votes)

Margin: 833,823 votes to the current Government

How does that compare with the number of first-preference votes represented at previous elections?

2010: Gillard ALP supported by Green Party + Independents ... 50.6% of first-preference votes

2007: Rudd ALP ... 43.38% of first-preference votes

2004: Howard Liberal/National Coalition (incl CLP) ... 46.7% of first-preference votes

2001: Howard Liberal/National Coalition (incl CLP) ... 43.0% of first-preference votes

1998: Howard Liberal/National Coalition (incl CLP) ... 39.5% of first-preference votes

1996: Howard Liberal/National Coalition (incl CLP) ... 47.3% of first-preference votes

1993: Keating ALP ... 44.9%

1990: Hawke ALP ... 39.4%

1987: Hawke ALP 45.8%

1984: Hawke ALP 47.6%

1983: Hawke ALP 49.4%

1980: Fraser Coalition 46.4%

1977: Fraser Coalition 48.1%

1975: Fraser Coalition 53.1%

1974: Whitlam ALP 49.3%

1972: Whitlam ALP 49.6%

1969: Gorton Coalition 43.3%

1966: Holt Coalition 49.98%

1963: Menzies Coalition 46.0%

1961: Menzies Coalition 42.1%

1958: Menzies Coalition 46.6%

1955: Menzies Coalition 47.6% *

1954: Menzies Coalition 46.8% *

1951: Menzies Coalition 50.3% *

1949: Menzies Coalition 50.3%

1946: Chifley ALP 49.7%

1943: Curtin ALP 49.9% *

1941 October re-alignment: Curtin ALP supported by Independents 40.2%* plus ?

1941: Menzies UAP+CP supported by Independents 43.9%* plus ?

1937: Lyons UAP+CP 49.3% *

1934: Lyons UAP+CP 45.6% *

1931: Lyons UAP+CP 48.4% *

1929: Scullin ALP 48.8% *

1928: Bruce Nationalist/CP 49.6% *

1925: Bruce Nationalist/CP 53.2% *

1922: Bruce Nationalist/CP 47.8% *

1919: Hughes Nationalist 45.1% *

1917: Hughes Nationalist 54.2% *

1914: Fisher ALP 50.9% *

1913: Cook CLP 48.9%*

1910: Fisher ALP 49.97% *

1906: Deakin Protectionist+Labour 53.08%*

1903: Deakin Protectionist+Labour 60.7%*

1901: Barton Protectionist+Labour 52.5%*

*= some MHRs were elected unopposed in these elections and so
we do not include any votes for them

SO 2010 is the first time, in 35 years, that the Government has the first-preference support of more than half the population. It is only the tenth time in Australian Federal Government history that a Government commands support of a majority of first-preference votes. It is only the second time ever that an ALP Prime Minister has governed with a majority of first-preference votes behind him or her (the only other time was Andrew Fisher after the 1914 election).

The Two-Party Preferred Vote and Legitimacy

1)
Senator Nick Minchin 21st August

From the Sydney Morning Herald on August 22nd,

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/powers-in-balance-after-rise-of-the-crossbenchers-20100821-13a42.html

"Senior Liberal Nick Minchin said the independents should respect the major party that had the highest two-party-preferred vote and the most seats."

(This was apparently said on TV on election night.)

2)
Senator Brandis

8th September ABC 612 Brisbane Mornings with Chris O’Brien

Senator Brandis
"the Coalition actually won the majority of the votes, about 700,000 well, primary votes, and importantly it won several thousand more two-party preferred votes"

3)
Julie Bishop 31st August

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/31/2997897.htm

From the ABC:
"Liberal deputy leader Julie Bishop says Prime Minister Julia Gillard has lost her mandate to form government after Labor has lost its lead in the two-party preferred vote."



4)
Mirabella sept 14th

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/gillard-to-explain-claim-to-leadership/story-e6freuyi-1225912314309

"If Ms Gillard's main moral pillar of seeking to form government was that she was ahead on the two-party preferred vote then that has dissipated," Liberal frontbencher Sophie Mirabella told Sky News.

5)
Tony Abbott

From Liberal news

http://www.liberal.org.au/Latest-News/2010/09/08/Tony-Abbott-interview-with-Alan-Jones.aspx

ALAN JONES:

Is it a healthy democracy when a Party wins the majority of the two party preferred, wins the majority of the primary vote and wins more seats in the Parliament than the other Party but the other Party forms government?

TONY ABBOTT:

Again, Alan, it’s disappointing when all these things are true but it is our system.

from

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/tony-abbott-admits-disappointment-coalition-did-not-get-chance-to-govern/story-e6freuy9-1225915512964

"The coalition won more votes and more seats than our opponents but sadly we did not get the opportunity to form a government,'' he said.

Latest on the National TPP count

ALP 24,901 votes ahead out of 12.0 million votes counted.

I think that is about 96% of the expected number of final formal votes counted.

My latest estimates for the final result are:

Total number of formal votes in the 142 normal seats: 11,825,318

ALP to get 5,914,739 of them, that’s 50.02%.
LNP to get 5,910,579 of them, that’s 49.98%.
margin 4160 to ALP.

Then the eight special seats.

ALP to win Batman TPP by a margin of 40,281. (76%)
ALP to win Melbourne by 42,069. (74%) [counting underway]
ALP to win Grayndler by 36,626. (72%)
ALP won Denison by 20,525. (ALP 66%) [counting finished]
LNP to win Kennedy by 21,248. (ALP 37%)
LNP won Lyne by 21,163. (ALP 38%) [counting finished]
LNP to win O’Connor by 36,258. (ALP 28%)[counting underway]
LNP to win New England by 34,642. (ALP 31%)

Final total margin:
ALP by 30,350

Out of about 12,500,000 votes that’s a final
result of:

ALP 50.12% – LNP 49.88%