Federal Election 2010: Poll of Polls 15th August

We've had a few polls published this weekend.

1)
There are also the latest individual seat betting odds.
http://dr--good.blogspot.com/2010/08/federal-election-2010-analysis-of_14.html

2)
There is a Neilsen 53-47
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/08/13/nielsen-53-47-to-labor/
showing a 0.3% swing to ALP if taken on a uniform national
basis.


3)
There is a Morgan phone poll 51-49 with state by state breakdowns
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4559/
It suggests swings of
-6.3, +4.2, -3.9, +0.8, -0.4, -3.7 across NSW, Vic, Qld, WA, SA
and Tas respectively. I also include a recent individual seat poll
by Morgan which gives Solomon to the CLP.

4)
There is a newspoll marginals poll
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/08/14/newspoll-marginals-poll-nsw-queensland-victoria/
It suggests swings of
-1.3, +6.2, -3.4 across NSW, Vic, Qld, respectively

5)
There is the dodgy monster Galaxy
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/08/15/galaxy-marginals-polls-and-the-rest/
which is pointing towards an ALP 51-49 TPP but
some claim also suggests swings of
-2.4, +1.6, -5.4, -2.1, 0 across NSW, Vic, Qld, WA and SA respectively.
I think that they have not chosen sensible electorates
to get a picture of the statewide swings but anyway ...

Let's compare their predictions.

Here is a table of electorates with the respective
predictions and a total at the end of how many
of our 5 recent oracles, are predicting an ALP
win. Click for a bigger version. This only includes
marginals.























There are 57 safe ALP seats not listed so
you can use the number in the first
column to total up the overall ALP
wins. ( I don't include Melbourne)

Looks like about 79 to the ALP plus or
minus a few.