The TPP in Lyne

Here is my analysis of Oakeshott’s and Lyne’s voters using the
final TCP and TPP results for the seat. In the coming weeks
we will get some actual data on some of the preference flows
but in the meantime I am using estimates based on the flows
that best match the individual booth results.

So Rob Oakeshott got 47% (=40,061) of the first preference votes in Lyne.

About 57% of his 1st pref supporters (=22,835) went on to
preference the Nationals over the ALP.

The other 43% of his 1st pref supporters (=17,226) preferred
the ALP over the Nationals.

However, Oakeshott did not win the seat on 1st preferences,
he needed preferences from ALP, Greens and another
independent to keep the seat from his National opponent.

Oakeshott ended up with about 63% (=53,297) of the
two-candidate preferred (TCP) vote in Lyne to hold the
seat against the National.

How was Oakeshott’s winning 53,297 made up?

22,835 (or 43%) were his National leaning 1st pref voters.
17,266 (or 32%) were his ALP leaning 1st pref voters.
10,656 (or 20%) were ALP 1 voters who preferenced Oakeshott over Nationals.
2,520 (or 5%) were Green 1 voters who pref’d him.
The other 20 were prefs from the other Independent.

So that makes about 57% of Oakeshott’s supporters,
the ones who gave him the seat, being left-leaning voters.

It is thus obvious that Oakeshott stands clearly to the left of the
LNP (without even having to look in detail at his
election material).

Optional Preferential Voting and the 2010 election

Rod Hagen on Pollbludgers mentioned an article by Mumble

Rod pointed out that Mumble had claimed that
Optional Preferential Voting (OPV) would have delivered Australia
to Abbott in the 2010 election.

However, you pointed out that OPV might not be so bad for
the ALP as 1) more of the currently informal votes that
would become formal would favour the ALP and
2) the Greens would generally be more careful to make sure that
they indicated their preferences among the major parties.

You said that Mumble disagreed.

So, I had a look. I took the results of the vote across the country
and plugged them in with a couple of adjustments to
take account of your model of OPV. In particular I gave
the ALP 2% of the 5% informals and the LNP 1%.
I also assumed that 80% of the Greens would indicate
their preference ALP or LNP. I assumed that only 50%
of the minor party and independent voters would
indicate their preferences.

What are the results of this simulation?

All the 4 independents and Bandt and Crook still win.

141 of the other seats turn out exactly the same.

Only three seats change winners under OPV.
They are:

Forde gets won by the ALP instead of LNP.

Herbert gets won by the ALP instead of LNP.

Hasluck gets won by the ALP instead of LNP.

So I’m with you Rod. Under reasonable assumptions
on the effects of OPV, the ALP wins 3 more seats.

Final result. ALP 75 seats, Green 1, Inds 4, NatWA 1,
Coalition 69.

Latest TPP counting.

LNP 2355 votes ahead out of 11.7 million votes counted for the 142 normal seats.

I think that is about 97.3% of the expected number of final formal votes counted
in those 142 seats.

My latest estimates for the final result are:

Total number of formal votes in the normal seats: 11986353

ALP to get 5988575 of them, that’s 49.96%.
LNP to get 5997778 of them, that’s 50.04%.
margin 9203 to LNP.

Then the eight special seats.

ALP to win Batman TPP by a margin of 41,902. (76%)
ALP to won Melbourne by 39,358. (71%)
ALP to win Grayndler by 38,132. (72%)
ALP to win Denison by 21,373. (66%)
LNP to win Kennedy by 20,785. (ALP 37%)
LNP to win Lyne by 20,877. (ALP 38%)
LNP to win O’Connor by 32,476. (ALP 31%)
LNP to win New England by 34,857. (ALP 31%)

Final total margin:
ALP by 22,477

Out of about 12,700,000 votes that’s a final
result of:

ALP 50.09% – LNP 49.91%

Federal Election 2010

Hung Parliament on 52-48 Scenario

August 17

Some say that with the state of the national polls
eg Newspoll ALP 52-48 it is impossible for
the ALP to not win majority government.

However, it is perfectly possible for the ALP
to win only 75 seats with 52% of the vote.

The following
scenario sets out how this might happen and
is roughly consistent with the latest national polls,
state-wide polls. individual seat polls and
individual seat betting markets.

State-by-state.

NSW (average 1.5% swing to Liberals, ALP end up on 51.9%)
Loss of Macquarie, Robertson, Gilmore, Macarthur
Bigger swing in Lindsay (-7%) loss
Lesser swings in Bennelong (-0.6%) hold

Qld (average 3.7% swing to LNP, ALP end up on 46.9%)
Loss of Flynn, Dickson, Dawson, Herbert
Bigger swing in Leichhardt (-5%) loss
Lesser swing in Forde (-2.5%) hold
Lesser swing in Longman (+2%) hold

Vic (average 3.2% swing to ALP, ALP end up on 57.2%)
Gain of McEwen
Lesser swing in La Trobe (1% to Libs) Lib hold
Greens win Mebourne

WA (average 0.3% swing to ALP, ALP end up on 47.0%)
Lesser swing in Swan (4% to Libs) Lib gain
Lesser swing in Hasluck (1% to Libs) Lib gain

SA (average +0.1% swing to ALP, ALP on 52.3%)
no change

Tas (av +0.6% swing to ALP)
no change

ACT (av 0% swing to ALP)
no change

NT (av -0.3% swing to Libs, ALP on 55.1%)
ALP lose Solomon

Overall TPP is 52.0%
(0.7% swing to Coalition)

Overall seat result:
ALP 75, Lib 71, Ind 3, GRN 1

Hung Parliament

Federal Election 2010: Analysis of Individual Seat Betting Aug 17th

Likely state of parties after the election according to the individual
seat odds of Sportingbet as of this morning (aug 17).

Overall situation: around ALP 75, LNP 71 , Ind 3, Green 1 => Hung Parliament

Note that the odds have changed a little over the last few days.
There are now less seats which are close to 50-50 probability.
There has also been a bit of a move by a few NSW seats to the
Coalition.

The change to a hung parliament today is a move
in the opposite direction to the moves on
the betting market for the overall government.

Details (according to current odds):

1)
ALP to lose Melbourne to the Greens
(Prob Green win =55%, Prob ALP =34%)

2)
ALP have 63 safe seats including Eden-Monaro and Longman.

3)
ALP look very likely to retain a further 7 of the following 9
(in which they have good odds of retaining):
Greenway (which was Lib before redistribution), Page, Dobell,
Bonner, Petrie, McEwen(a gain), Bass, Deakin, Brisbane,
But they may lose 2.

4)
ALP should be able to win 2 of the following 3 seats as they are just ahead:
Corangamite, Forde, Bennelong
But they may not get 1 of these.

5)
ALP should be able to win at least 2 of the following 5 seats
where they are just behind, but they will most likely lose
the other 3:
Hasluck(ALP), Solomon(ALP), Lindsay(ALP),
Herbert(Lib/notional ALP), La Trobe (Lib).


6)
ALP should be able to win 1 of the following 5 seats where they are behind
but have the cumulative probability of one win:
Hughes(Lib), Macarthur(Lib, notional ALP), Canning(Lib), Swan(Lib, notional ALP), Dawson(ALP)

7)
There are 6 seats which were in doubt but now seem likely
to be won by the Liberals. Likely 0 to ALP:
Macquarie(Lib), Gilmore(Lib, notional ALP), Boothby(Lib),
Dickson(Lib, notional ALP), Ryan(Lib), Flynn(Lib)

7)
There are 55 safe L/NP seats.

8)
There are 3 safe independents.

9)
Note that there are 75 seats which the odds say that the
ALP are more likely to win than not win, but because there
are more seats just on the ALP side than just on the
Coalition side, the expected number of wins is
a bit less 74.7.

Total 150 seats. Here is a table (click for a larger version).

























This also includes estimates of swings to the ALP
based on the bookies odds.

Federal Election 2010: Poll of Polls 15th August

We've had a few polls published this weekend.

1)
There are also the latest individual seat betting odds.
http://dr--good.blogspot.com/2010/08/federal-election-2010-analysis-of_14.html

2)
There is a Neilsen 53-47
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/08/13/nielsen-53-47-to-labor/
showing a 0.3% swing to ALP if taken on a uniform national
basis.


3)
There is a Morgan phone poll 51-49 with state by state breakdowns
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4559/
It suggests swings of
-6.3, +4.2, -3.9, +0.8, -0.4, -3.7 across NSW, Vic, Qld, WA, SA
and Tas respectively. I also include a recent individual seat poll
by Morgan which gives Solomon to the CLP.

4)
There is a newspoll marginals poll
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/08/14/newspoll-marginals-poll-nsw-queensland-victoria/
It suggests swings of
-1.3, +6.2, -3.4 across NSW, Vic, Qld, respectively

5)
There is the dodgy monster Galaxy
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/08/15/galaxy-marginals-polls-and-the-rest/
which is pointing towards an ALP 51-49 TPP but
some claim also suggests swings of
-2.4, +1.6, -5.4, -2.1, 0 across NSW, Vic, Qld, WA and SA respectively.
I think that they have not chosen sensible electorates
to get a picture of the statewide swings but anyway ...

Let's compare their predictions.

Here is a table of electorates with the respective
predictions and a total at the end of how many
of our 5 recent oracles, are predicting an ALP
win. Click for a bigger version. This only includes
marginals.























There are 57 safe ALP seats not listed so
you can use the number in the first
column to total up the overall ALP
wins. ( I don't include Melbourne)

Looks like about 79 to the ALP plus or
minus a few.

Federal Election 2010: Analysis of Individual Seat Betting Aug 15th

Likely state of parties after the election according to the individual
seat odds of Sportingbet as of this morning (aug 15).

Overall situation: around ALP 76, LNP 70 , Ind 3, Green 1 => ALP majority government

Details (according to current odds):

1)
ALP to lose Melbourne to the Greens
(Prob Green win =55%, Prob ALP =34%)

2)
ALP have 63 safe seats including Eden-Monaro and Longman.

3)
ALP look very likely to retain a further 7 of the following 10
(in which they have good odds of retaining):
Greenway (which was Lib before redistribution), Page, Dobell,
Bonner, Petrie, McEwen(a gain), Deakin, Brisbane, Bennelong, Lindsay
But they may lose 3.

4)
ALP should be able to win 3 of the following 4 seats as they are just ahead:
Forde, Bass, Corangamite, Hasluck
But they may not get 1 of these.

5)
ALP should be able to win at least 2 of the following 6 seats
where they are just behind, but they will most likely lose
the other 4:
Solomon(ALP), Hughes(Lib), Herbert(Lib), Macarthur(Lib),
Swan(Lib), Macquarie(ALP)

6)
ALP may win 1 of the following 9 seats where they are behind
but have a significant probability of a win (i.e. it adds up over the 9
seats):
La Trobe, Canning, Dawson(ALP), Bowman, Leichhardt, Gilmore,
Boothby, Dickson, Ryan

7)
There are 54 safe L/NP seats.

8)
There are 3 safe independents.

9)
Note that there are 77 seats which the odds say that the
ALP are more likely to win than not win, but because there
are more seats just on the ALP side than just on the
Coalition side, the expected number of wins is only 76.

Total 150 seats. Here is a table (click for a larger version).
























This also includes estimates of swings to the ALP
based on the bookies odds.