Monday, September 13, 2010

Latest on the National TPP count

ALP 24,901 votes ahead out of 12.0 million votes counted.

I think that is about 96% of the expected number of final formal votes counted.

My latest estimates for the final result are:

Total number of formal votes in the 142 normal seats: 11,825,318

ALP to get 5,914,739 of them, that’s 50.02%.
LNP to get 5,910,579 of them, that’s 49.98%.
margin 4160 to ALP.

Then the eight special seats.

ALP to win Batman TPP by a margin of 40,281. (76%)
ALP to win Melbourne by 42,069. (74%) [counting underway]
ALP to win Grayndler by 36,626. (72%)
ALP won Denison by 20,525. (ALP 66%) [counting finished]
LNP to win Kennedy by 21,248. (ALP 37%)
LNP won Lyne by 21,163. (ALP 38%) [counting finished]
LNP to win O’Connor by 36,258. (ALP 28%)[counting underway]
LNP to win New England by 34,642. (ALP 31%)

Final total margin:
ALP by 30,350

Out of about 12,500,000 votes that’s a final
result of:

ALP 50.12% – LNP 49.88%

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