Monday, September 13, 2010

The TPP in Lyne

Here is my analysis of Oakeshott’s and Lyne’s voters using the
final TCP and TPP results for the seat. In the coming weeks
we will get some actual data on some of the preference flows
but in the meantime I am using estimates based on the flows
that best match the individual booth results.

So Rob Oakeshott got 47% (=40,061) of the first preference votes in Lyne.

About 57% of his 1st pref supporters (=22,835) went on to
preference the Nationals over the ALP.

The other 43% of his 1st pref supporters (=17,226) preferred
the ALP over the Nationals.

However, Oakeshott did not win the seat on 1st preferences,
he needed preferences from ALP, Greens and another
independent to keep the seat from his National opponent.

Oakeshott ended up with about 63% (=53,297) of the
two-candidate preferred (TCP) vote in Lyne to hold the
seat against the National.

How was Oakeshott’s winning 53,297 made up?

22,835 (or 43%) were his National leaning 1st pref voters.
17,266 (or 32%) were his ALP leaning 1st pref voters.
10,656 (or 20%) were ALP 1 voters who preferenced Oakeshott over Nationals.
2,520 (or 5%) were Green 1 voters who pref’d him.
The other 20 were prefs from the other Independent.

So that makes about 57% of Oakeshott’s supporters,
the ones who gave him the seat, being left-leaning voters.

It is thus obvious that Oakeshott stands clearly to the left of the
LNP (without even having to look in detail at his
election material).

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