Monday, August 2, 2010

Federal Election 2010: Analysis of Individual Seat Betting Aug 3rd

Likely state of parties after the election according to the individual
seat odds of Sportingbet as of today.

Overall situation: around ALP 77, LNP 69 , Ind 3, Green 1 => ALP majority government

Details (according to current odds):

ALP to lose Melbourne to the Greens

ALP have 64 safe seats including Greenway (which was Lib befre redistribution).

ALP look very likely to retain a further 7:
Bonner, Page, Longman, Dobell, Bennelong, Deakin and Brisbane

ALP should be able to hold 3 of the following 4 seats as they are ahead:
Petrie, Forde, Bass, Hasluck

ALP should be able to hold at least one of the following 3 ALP held seats
where they are even, close or just behind, but they will most likely lose
the other 2:
Corangamite, Solomon, Leichhardt,

Other likely ALP losses are:
Macquarie, Flynn, Dawson, Robertson

ALP likely to gain about 2 of the following seats:
McEwen, Hughes, Herbert, Macarthur

ALP probably won't gain any of the following seats
although they are close:
Dickson, Bowman, Swan

There are 55 safe L/NP seats.

There are 3 safe independents.

Total 150 seats.

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