Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Federal Election 2010

Hung Parliament on 52-48 Scenario

August 17

Some say that with the state of the national polls
eg Newspoll ALP 52-48 it is impossible for
the ALP to not win majority government.

However, it is perfectly possible for the ALP
to win only 75 seats with 52% of the vote.

The following
scenario sets out how this might happen and
is roughly consistent with the latest national polls,
state-wide polls. individual seat polls and
individual seat betting markets.


NSW (average 1.5% swing to Liberals, ALP end up on 51.9%)
Loss of Macquarie, Robertson, Gilmore, Macarthur
Bigger swing in Lindsay (-7%) loss
Lesser swings in Bennelong (-0.6%) hold

Qld (average 3.7% swing to LNP, ALP end up on 46.9%)
Loss of Flynn, Dickson, Dawson, Herbert
Bigger swing in Leichhardt (-5%) loss
Lesser swing in Forde (-2.5%) hold
Lesser swing in Longman (+2%) hold

Vic (average 3.2% swing to ALP, ALP end up on 57.2%)
Gain of McEwen
Lesser swing in La Trobe (1% to Libs) Lib hold
Greens win Mebourne

WA (average 0.3% swing to ALP, ALP end up on 47.0%)
Lesser swing in Swan (4% to Libs) Lib gain
Lesser swing in Hasluck (1% to Libs) Lib gain

SA (average +0.1% swing to ALP, ALP on 52.3%)
no change

Tas (av +0.6% swing to ALP)
no change

ACT (av 0% swing to ALP)
no change

NT (av -0.3% swing to Libs, ALP on 55.1%)
ALP lose Solomon

Overall TPP is 52.0%
(0.7% swing to Coalition)

Overall seat result:
ALP 75, Lib 71, Ind 3, GRN 1

Hung Parliament

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