Saturday, August 14, 2010

Federal Election 2010: Poll of Polls 15th August

We've had a few polls published this weekend.

There are also the latest individual seat betting odds.

There is a Neilsen 53-47
showing a 0.3% swing to ALP if taken on a uniform national

There is a Morgan phone poll 51-49 with state by state breakdowns

It suggests swings of
-6.3, +4.2, -3.9, +0.8, -0.4, -3.7 across NSW, Vic, Qld, WA, SA
and Tas respectively
. I also include a recent individual seat poll
by Morgan which gives Solomon to the CLP.

There is a newspoll marginals poll

It suggests swings of
-1.3, +6.2, -3.4 across NSW, Vic, Qld, respectively

There is the dodgy monster Galaxy
which is pointing towards an ALP 51-49 TPP but
some claim also suggests swings of
-2.4, +1.6, -5.4, -2.1, 0 across NSW, Vic, Qld, WA and SA respectively.
I think that they have not chosen sensible electorates
to get a picture of the statewide swings but anyway ...

Let's compare their predictions.

Here is a table of electorates with the respective
predictions and a total at the end of how many
of our 5 recent oracles, are predicting an ALP
win. Click for a bigger version. This only includes

There are 57 safe ALP seats not listed so
you can use the number in the first
column to total up the overall ALP
wins. ( I don't include Melbourne)

Looks like about 79 to the ALP plus or
minus a few.

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