Saturday, August 7, 2010

Federal Election 2010: Analysis of Individual Seat Betting Aug 8th

Likely state of parties after the election according to the individual
seat odds of Sportingbet as of today.

Overall situation: around ALP 77, LNP 69 , Ind 3, Green 1 => ALP majority government

Details (according to current odds):

ALP to lose Melbourne to the Greens
(Prob Green win =50.4%, Prob ALP =36.7%)

ALP have 63 safe seats including Greenway (which was Lib before redistribution)
and Eden-Monaro.

ALP look very likely to retain a further 7 of the following 9
(in which they have good odds of retaining):
Lindsay, Page, Bonner, Longman, Petrie, Bennelong, Dobell, Deakin, Brisbane
But they may lose 2.

ALP should be able to win 4 of the following 6 seats as they are just ahead:
Forde, Bass, McEwen(a gain), Hasluck, Hughes(a gain), Corangamite
But they may not get 2 of these.

ALP should be able to win at least one of the following 4 seats
where they are just behind, but they will most likely lose
the other 3:
Solomon(ALP), Macarthur(Lib), Herbert(Lib), Dickson(Lib)

ALP may win 2 of the following 11 seats where they are behind
but have a significant probability of a win (i.e. it adds up over the 11
Bowman, Flynn(ALP), Swan, Ryan, Macquarie(ALP), Leichhardt(ALP), Paterson,
La Trobe, Canning, Robertson(ALP), Dawson(ALP)

There are 53 safe L/NP seats.

There are 3 safe independents.

Total 150 seats.

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