Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Federal Election 2010: Analysis of Individual Seat Betting Aug 11th

Likely state of parties after the election according to the individual
seat odds of Sportingbet as of today (aug 11).

Overall situation: around ALP 76, LNP 70 , Ind 3, Green 1 => ALP majority government

Details (according to current odds):

ALP to lose Melbourne to the Greens
(Prob Green win =55%, Prob ALP =34%)

ALP have 63 safe seats including Greenway (which was Lib before redistribution)
and Eden-Monaro.

ALP look very likely to retain a further 7 of the following 9
(in which they have good odds of retaining):
Booner, Page, Longman, Petrie, Bennelong, Deakin, Dobell, Brisbane, McEwen(a gain)
But they may lose 2.

ALP should be able to win 3 of the following 5 seats as they are just ahead:
Bass, Corangamite, Forde, Lindsay, Hasluck
But they may not get 2 of these.

ALP should be able to win at least 2 of the following 8 seats
where they are just behind, but they will most likely lose
the other 6:
Macarthur(Lib), Solomon(ALP), Hughes(Lib), Herbert(Lib), Dickson(Lib), Flynn(ALP),
Swan(Lib), Macquarie(ALP)

ALP may win 1 of the following 8 seats where they are behind
but have a significant probability of a win (i.e. it adds up over the 8
Leichhardt(ALP), Canning, La Trobe, Robertson (ALP),
Dawson(ALP), Bowman, Boothby, Gilmore

There are 53 safe L/NP seats.

There are 3 safe independents.

Note that there are 77 seats which the odds say that the
ALP are more likely to win than not win, but because there
are more seats just on the ALP side than just on the
Coalition side, the expected number of wins is only 76.

Total 150 seats. Here is a table (click for a larger version).

We can also roughly estimate the expected swings by using the
seat odds and current margin. See the last column.

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