Monday, August 9, 2010

Federal Election 2010:
Analysis of Individual Seat Betting Aug 9th

Expected Swings in the most marginal seats.

The odds of winning individual seats tell us something about the swings expected in those seats. Eg, 50-50 odds tell us that the bookies and their punters expect the final result in that seat to be close to even. More on this in a future post.

Here are the swings (to the ALP) expected according to today's sportingbet odds.

(click on the table to see a bigger image)

1 comment:

  1. One Nation, Family First and Democratic Labor Party to elect Victoria’s First Green Senator
    Analysis of the 2010 registered Victorian Senate How to Vote preference allocation indicates that the Greens (based on the 2007 Senate Election results) will elect 3 Liberal, 2 ALP and one Greens Senator.

    Electoral Analyst Anthony van der Craats, said that One Nation, Family First and the Democratic Labor Party unwittingly will contribute to the election of a Green Senator even though all three have preferenced the ALP before the Greens. In 2007, using the same votes, the Liberal party and the ALP both elected three Senators.

    The reason why the Greens candidate is elected is due primarily to the distortion in the way in which the Senate vote is counted.

    The Australian Electoral Commission, when calculating the surplus transfer value, divides a candidate’s surplus value by the number of ballot papers as opposed to the value of the vote. This has the effect of increasing the Liberal Party ticket vote which is then distributed to the Greens at an inflated value giving the Greens a bonus 7,000 votes derived from One Nation, Family First and Democratic Labor Party supporters.

    By way of analogy Mr van der Craats said

    If we calculated the dividend of shares based on the number for shareholders as opposed to the value of shares our financial system would collapse overnight. It would not be accepted for counting money however this is how Australian Senate votes are counted.

    The system is not proportional to the value of the vote. If we are to have a fair and accurate election system then the method of calculating the surplus value and distributing preferences needs to be changed and the system fixed

    The Australian Senate system is semi-proportional only.

    The identified flaw in the system was outlined to the Australian Parliament "Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters" (JSCEM) in a submission made in 2008. The JSEM failed to act to correct the system.

    Mr. van der Craats's analysis has been independently confirmed by ABC Electoral Analyst Antony Green.