Monday, August 16, 2010

Federal Election 2010: Analysis of Individual Seat Betting Aug 17th

Likely state of parties after the election according to the individual
seat odds of Sportingbet as of this morning (aug 17).

Overall situation: around ALP 75, LNP 71 , Ind 3, Green 1 => Hung Parliament

Note that the odds have changed a little over the last few days.
There are now less seats which are close to 50-50 probability.
There has also been a bit of a move by a few NSW seats to the

The change to a hung parliament today is a move
in the opposite direction to the moves on
the betting market for the overall government.

Details (according to current odds):

ALP to lose Melbourne to the Greens
(Prob Green win =55%, Prob ALP =34%)

ALP have 63 safe seats including Eden-Monaro and Longman.

ALP look very likely to retain a further 7 of the following 9
(in which they have good odds of retaining):
Greenway (which was Lib before redistribution), Page, Dobell,
Bonner, Petrie, McEwen(a gain), Bass, Deakin, Brisbane,
But they may lose 2.

ALP should be able to win 2 of the following 3 seats as they are just ahead:
Corangamite, Forde, Bennelong
But they may not get 1 of these.

ALP should be able to win at least 2 of the following 5 seats
where they are just behind, but they will most likely lose
the other 3:
Hasluck(ALP), Solomon(ALP), Lindsay(ALP),
Herbert(Lib/notional ALP),
La Trobe (Lib).

ALP should be able to win 1 of the following 5 seats where they are behind
but have the cumulative probability of one win:

Hughes(Lib), Macarthur(Lib, notional ALP), Canning(Lib), Swan(Lib, notional ALP), Dawson(ALP)

There are 6 seats which were in doubt but now seem likely
to be won by the Liberals. Likely 0 to ALP:
Macquarie(Lib), Gilmore(Lib, notional ALP), Boothby(Lib),
Dickson(Lib, notional ALP), Ryan(Lib), Flynn(Lib)

There are 55 safe L/NP seats.

There are 3 safe independents.

Note that there are 75 seats which the odds say that the
ALP are more likely to win than not win, but because there
are more seats just on the ALP side than just on the
Coalition side, the expected number of wins is
a bit less 74.7.

Total 150 seats. Here is a table (click for a larger version).

This also includes estimates of swings to the ALP
based on the bookies odds.

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